Sunday, 19 October
 |
| Running against Obama |
Good Morning
Justin…
Early voting
begins this Thursday in North Carolina just as the birds are flocking, about to
migrate out of the state. The latest
polls here show the race for Senate essentially dead even. Democrats are placing their hopes of a win on
the time and money they’ve put into their grass roots organization. Its primary purpose is to get Democrats to
the polls that don’t normally vote in midterm elections. This
is a sixty million dollar bet laid down by the DSCC, Democratic Senate Campaign
Committee. A good deal of the resources
has come here to North Carolina. The
Democrat incumbent is Kay Hagan but Republicans see the name Barack Obama on
the ballot. They aren’t alone. The President is very unpopular in this state
as he is elsewhere, particularly in the South.
This is why Republicans want to make this election a referendum on
President Obama. Democrats, on the other
hand, want the election localized and avoid talking about the President as much
as possible.
Kentucky’s
Democrat Senate candidate, Alison Grimes, refused to say who she voted for
president in the 2008 and 2012 elections.
She said it had to do with the sanctity of the voting booth – votes are
cast in anonymity. Until this point the
race was close in her contest with Republican Minority Senate Leader Mitch
McConnell. Her disingenuous siting of
principle has made Senator McConnell’s reelection almost inevitable, leading the
DSCC to divert further funding of her campaign to more likely winners. Kay Hagan is one of those benefactors. Republicans last week made an additional six
million dollar ad buy supporting Hagan’s opponent Thom Tillis. Tillis has recently overtaken Hagan in
campaign funding but late money isn’t as effective at purchasing television
time. Early in the contest Hagan’s
campaign reserved broadcast ads for the closing weeks – paying half the money
Tillis is now forced to pay when television ad availability is at a premium.
The factor
most critical to a candidate’s success is the makeup of the voters turning out
at the polls. Democrats generally enjoy
an electoral advantage in presidential years but their numbers fall off
considerably in midterm elections. The
difference nationally in their voting numbers fell by more than twenty-one
million between 2008 and 2010. The
result was a loss of more than sixty seats in the House wing of Congress and
the takeover by Republicans of several state legislatures and governorships
across the nation. The reason for this
difference in participation has to do with demographics. Older citizens are more likely to be
Republican. They are also the most
reliable group of voters when it comes to showing up at the polls. Republicans are mainly conservative and these
people have an enthusiasm for voting second to none.
In contrast,
Democrats rely on a more youthful and diverse demographic. Their success often requires sizeable
participation from students, young single women and minorities. Voter enthusiasm is largely absent among these
groups without the drama of a presidential candidate at the top of the
ticket. This year is no exception. Democrats have put enormous money, time and
manpower into changing the historic turnout of midterm elections. Whether this effort has been effective is
still in doubt. The Party hired four
thousand workers to run regional and county campaign offices. But this is only the beginning. The program can’t work without attracting a
good number of dedicated, reliable volunteers to man the phone banks and do the
tough job of canvassing for votes by going door to door. The challenge of contacting millions of
voters in this manner is nearly overwhelming.
Burnout is a constant problem.
The results
of many Senatorial contests this first Tuesday in November are too close to
call. An additional one or two percent
turnout of Democrat voters could make the difference between victory and
defeat, between a Republican or Democrat Senate majority. No matter the outcome, though, the emphasis
on sophisticated grassroots organization will undoubtedly continue. Relying on saturating the airwaves with your
political message has its limitations in changing minds and prompting people to
vote. At some point people may either
tune you out or become annoyed enough to wash their hands of the entire
political process. Reaching the voter
with the candidate’s message sometimes takes a neighbor showing up at your door
to talk about their candidate. That’s if
you bother to answer the door and don’t run them off with a growling, “Get lost!”
Love,
Dad
